Which candidate will win PP 202 By Election Sahiwal
Malik Noman Langrial or Major Ghulam Sarwar?
The importance of PP-202 Chichawatni in the political arena can be gauged from the fact that former Prime Minister Imran Khan and PML-N Vice President Maryam Nawaz have held Jalsas here. The final contest will also be between PML-N and PTI candidates.
The sun of July 17, 2022 rises in anticipation of which candidate’s victory, will be estimated in the next few days. However, there are a number of factors that make it easier to gauge the political landscape.
1. Candidate selection
Pakistan Muslim League-N
In the selection of the candidate, PML-N showed political foresight by following the pre-arranged plan. Malik Noman Langarial and his family have been in politics for decades.
Noman Langarial was elected MNA from National Assembly constituency NA-163 in 2008 on PML-Q ticket while his father Malik Iqbal Ahmed Langarial (late) was elected MPA on PML-Q ticket in 2008.
His mother, Ms. Naseem Langarial, came in second in the 2012 by-elections, garnering more than 35,000 votes.
In the 2013 general elections, Malik Noman Langarial contested from NA-163 and came second with 66,883 votes. His sister Amna Naveed polled more than 40,000 votes in the 2013 general election and came in second.
In the 2018 general elections, Malik Noman Langarial got 57190 votes from this constituency and was elected MPA. In this way, the Langarial family has been constantly trying its hand in the political arena.
On the other hand, the PTI announced the candidate too late. The Cold War between Major Ghulam Sarwar and Adil Saeed Gujjar continued for party tickets.
Adil Gujjar is the son of former MNA Chaudhry Saeed Gujjar and has his own vote bank of over 10,000. However, he could not get a PTI ticket in PP-202 and surrendered on the orders of the party leadership. Some in the local PTI constituencies believe that the leadership has made a mistake in the selection of the candidate.
Major R Ghulam Sarwar contested from NA-163 constituency in 2002 and came fourth with 15,715 votes.
In the 2013 general elections, Major Sarwar contested from NA-163 constituency of the National Assembly and got 117 votes. He submitted papers but did not contest the election. In 2018 too, he had to withdraw in favor of Malik Noman Langarial.
In any election, factionalism is the deciding factor. Among those campaigning for PML-N candidate Malik Noman Langarial are three former MNAs and three MPAs from the same city.
Chaudhry Tufail Jutt (Former MNA, Chichawatni)
Chaudhry Munir Azhar (Former MNA, Chichawatni)
Chaudhry Zahid Iqbal (Former MNA, Chichawatni)
Rana Riaz (MPA PP-200)
Chaudhry Arshad Jutt (Former MPA PP-201)
Chaudhry Hanif Jutt (Former MPA PP-202)
Chaudhry Shahid Munir (Former Candidate PP-202)
Among the mentioned leaders, Chaudhry Hanif Jutt has been MPA twice in this constituency. Chaudhry Munir Azhar has been an MNA in the same area and his son Chaudhry Shahid Munir has contested the 2018 elections from this constituency. Malik Noman himself has been an MNA and an MPA in the same area.
On the other hand, Rai Group is campaigning for PTI candidate Major Ghulam Sarwar.
Rai Hassan Nawaz (Former MNA, Chichawatni)
Rai Murtaza Iqbal (MNA, Chichawatni)
Syed Samsam Bukhari (MPA, pp. 201)
Syed Samsam Bukhari is from Okara and seldom visits Chichawatni. The factionalism of the Jute group is higher in PP-202 than that of the Rai group.
If Rai Group had fielded Major Sarwar instead of Syed Samam in the by-elections of 2018, the situation would have been different today.
3. Government machinery
It is believed that there are some departments in which government employees are under the control of the government and the government casts their votes in favor of its candidate. These votes can usually be between three and five thousand. And they play a key role in the victory of the government candidate. PML-N is an expert in this field and at present they have a government at the center and in the provinces. In addition, the police are under government control.
4. Wind (trend)
Sometimes people ask : In whose favor is the wind blowing? PTI dominates social media with reference to PP-202 Sahiwal. In a recent Dunya News poll, Ajmal Jami points in the same direction.
5. Ideological vote
Looking at the politics of the last two decades, it would not be wrong to say that there is rare ideological vote here. However, this time the situation looks different. PTI workers are emotionally with the party. This is the only Hope for Major Ghulam Sarwar.